PARIS: World May Breach 1.5 Celsius Warming Within 5 Years: UN Climate Body

PARIS: The world may temporarily breach
the 1.5-Celsius warming mark within the next five years, according to an
updated assessment of global climate trends released.

The World
Meteorological Organization and Britain’s Met Office said there was a 40
percent chance of the annual average global temperature surpassing 1.5C above
pre-industrial temperatures — the aspirational warming limit of the Paris climate
accord.

According
to the Met Office’s updated global 10-year climate prediction, there is a 90
percent chance of at least one year between 2021-2025 being the hottest on
record.

The
annual average global temperature over the next five years is likely to be at
least 1C warmer than pre-industrial levels, within a range of 0.9C-1.8C warmer,
it said.

“These
are more than just statistics,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

“Increasing
temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other
extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment
and sustainable development.”

The
Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, released on Thursday, showed that the
chance of breaching 1.5C had roughly doubled compared to a similar assessment
made last year.

The WMO
said this increase was largely down to improved datasets used to predict
temperatures, rather than a sudden increase in the rate of warming.

The
landmark 2015 Paris climate deal saw nations commit to limit global temperature
rises to “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels.

The
accord strives towards a safer cap of 1.5C, but pledges made by nations under
the Paris accord to date leave Earth on the path to warming roughly twice as
much by the end of the century.

Experts
greeted Thursday’s announcement with caution.

Joeri
Rogelj, director of research at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College
London, said a single year above 1.5C would not mean the Paris goals had been
breached.

“But
this is nevertheless very bad news,” he said.

“It
tells us once again that climate action to date is wholly insufficient and
emissions need to be reduced urgently to zero to halt global warming.”

The WHO
said the new assessment showed an increased likelihood of tropical cyclones in
the Atlantic, as well as increased rainfall in high-latitude regions and the
Sahel compared with the recent past.

“To
limit global warming to 1.5C – or what the parties to the Paris Agreement
thought 1.5C meant when they signed it – we need to hit the brakes on emissions
now and stop global warming in the next 30 years or so,” said Myles Allen,
professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford.