DUBAI: Secret India-Pakistan peace roadmap brokered by top UAE royals

DUBAI: About 24 hours after military
chiefs from India and Pakistan surprised the world last month with a rare joint
commitment to respect a 2003 ceasefire agreement, the top diplomat of the
United Arab Emirates popped over to New Delhi for a quick one-day visit.

The official UAE readout of the February 26 meeting gave few clues of what
foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed spoke about with Indian counterpart
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, noting they “discussed all regional and international
issues of common interest and exchanged views on them.”

Yet behind closed doors, the
India-Pakistan ceasefire marked a milestone in secret talks brokered by the UAE
that began months earlier, according to officials aware of the situation who
asked not to be identified. The ceasefire, one said, is only the beginning of a
larger roadmap to forge a lasting peace between the neighbors, both of which
have nuclear weapons and spar regularly over a decades-old territory dispute.

The next step in the process, the
official said, involves both sides reinstating envoys in New Delhi and
Islamabad, who were pulled in 2019 after Pakistan protested India’s move to
revoke seven decades of autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir. Then comes the hard
part: Talks on resuming trade and a lasting resolution on Kashmir, the subject
of three wars since India and Pakistan became independent from Britain in 1947.

Over the years, India and Pakistan have routinely made peace overtures only to
have them quickly fall through, particularly as both sides frequently use the
issue to stir up emotions around election time. Officials said expectations
were low that the current detente would achieve much beyond the return of
envoys and a resumption of trade through their Punjab land border.

But this process appears to be the most concerted effort in years, and comes as
the Biden administration is seeking wider peace talks on Afghanistan — a place
both countries for years have battled for influence. Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi wants to shore up growth and focus military resources on the
border with China, while Pakistan’s leaders are also facing economic woes and
looking to make a good impression with the US and other powers.

Last week Pakistan army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa asked India “to bury
the past and move forward” while saying the military was ready to enter talks
to resolve “all our outstanding issues.” The comments came a day after Prime
Minister Imran Khan after called for a resolution on Kashmir, which he
described as “the one issue that holds us back.”

The UAE, which has historic trade and diplomatic links with India and Pakistan,
has taken a more assertive international role under de facto ruler Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The biggest shift has been in the Middle East
where the Gulf Arab state has intervened in conflicts and backed groups and
regional leaders. But it has also looked to Asia as it strengthens political
alliances beyond its role as a global trade and logistics hub.

India-Pakistan ties were effectively cut off two years ago after a terrorist
attack in Kashmir killed 40 Indian soldiers, prompting Modi’s government to
authorize air strikes on alleged terror facilities inside Pakistan. The joint
statement last month said the two sides “agreed to address each other’s core
issues,” signaling a wider discussion on Kashmir and terrorism.

Several clues over the past few months pointed at the UAE’s role. In November,
Jaishankar met bin Zayed and the crown prince on a two-day visit to Abu Dhabi,
followed by Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi the following month.
Roughly two weeks before the February 25 announcement, the UAE foreign minister
held a phone call with Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan “wherein they
discussed regional and international issues of interest.” And just days before,
India allowed Khan’s aircraft to fly over Indian airspace as he headed to Sri
Lanka for a state visit — a practice suspended since the 2019 hostilities.

After the ceasefire, the UAE was one of a handful of countries to issue a
statement welcoming the ceasefire announcement, highlighting the “close
historical ties” it has with both India and Pakistan and hailing “the efforts
made by both countries to come to this agreement.” In Washington, State
Department spokesman Ned Price dodged a question on what role the US played in
bringing the two sides together while urging Pakistan to play a constructive
role in Afghanistan, Kashmir and other places.

“Obviously Pakistan has an important role to play when it comes to Afghanistan
and what takes place across its other border,” Price said on February 25. “So
clearly, we will be paying close attention.”